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これはCNNの速報

 投稿者:Legacy of Ashesの管理人  投稿日:2013年10月17日(木)06時14分55秒
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  管理人注:ドルは金利の付かない米国債との話はしました。米国の政治家が真面目なら解決策はあるのです。FRBによる通貨発行をやめ財務省が発行すればいいのです。年間100~150兆円もロスチャイルドのポケットに入っているのですからね。でもですねその政府紙幣は日本では禁句なのです。それを口にした元大学教授はミニスカートの中を手鏡で見たという痴漢冤罪になってしまいました。そのミニスカートの女性も多分サクラだったんでしょうね。その後の電車の中の女性も。

関連記事:ロンドンFX

http://londonfx.blog102.fc2.com/blog-entry-3431.html

Washington (CNN) -- Senate leaders on Wednesday announced a deal to end the partial government shutdown and avoid a possible U.S. default, and House Speaker John Boehner urged fellow Republicans to support it while a key GOP conservative said he wouldn't try to block it in the Senate.

"We fought the good fight; we just didn't win," Boehner told a radio station in his home state of Ohio in reference to GOP efforts to dismantle or defund President Barack Obama's signature health care reforms and extract deficit reduction concessions around the need to fund the government and raise the federal borrowing limit.

The Democratic-led Senate was expected to pass the agreement sometime Wednesday night, followed within hours by a vote in the Republican-led House.

Both chambers will have to take special steps to get the legislation passed that quickly, raising concerns that tea party conservatives led by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas would block or delay it in a final effort to include provisions intended to harm Obama's signature health care reforms.

However, Cruz told reporters that he wouldn't mount a filibuster or employ other procedural moves against the agreement. At the same time, he criticized his Senate colleagues for what he called their failure to listen to the American people and said the fight against Obamacare will continue.

National polls conducted since the start of the shutdown on October 1 indicate that while all sides are feeling the public's anger over the partisan political impasse, more blame is pointed at the Republicans in Congress rather than Democrats or Obama.

Boehner and other House Republican leaders told their caucus they would vote for the agreement at an afternoon meeting that participants said ended with a standing ovation for the embattled speaker.

"Blocking the bipartisan agreement reached today by the members of the Senate will not be a tactic for us," Boehner said in a statement. "Our drive to stop the train wreck that is the president's health care law will continue."

News of the deal brought some relief to Wall Street as well as Washington, where the shutdown reached a 16th day with the government poised to lose its ability to borrow more money to pay bills after Thursday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid hailed the agreement he worked out with his GOP counterpart Mitch McConnell as "historic," saying that "in the end, political adversaries put aside their differences."

Obama praised Senate leaders for reaching a compromise, and urged Congress to act quickly, White House spokesman Jay Carney said.

"As soon as possible is essentially the recommendation we have from here," he said.

U.S. stocks rose on the news of an agreement, with the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping more than 200 points on the day.

Short-term plan

Reid said the Senate deal under discussion would reopen the government by funding it until January 15. It also would raise the debt limit until February 7 to avert a possible default on U.S. debt obligations for the first time.

Also, the White House supports a provision in the deal that strengthens verification measures for people getting subsidies under Obamacare, spokesman Jay Carney said.

Carney called the change "a modest adjustment," and said it didn't amount to "ransom" for raising the federal debt ceiling because both sides agreed to it and the White House supported it.

In addition, the Senate agreement would set up budget negotiations between the House and Senate for a long-term spending plan.

McConnell fired an opening salvo for those talks, expected to begin soon and continue until December, when he said any ensuing budget deal should adhere to spending caps set in a 2011 law that included forced cuts known as sequestration.
Romans: Worried about complacency
Cutter to King: This is a fool's errand
Military cemeteries closed around world
Richard Quest explains the debt ceiling

"Preserving this law is critically important to the future of our country," McConnell said of the Budget Control Act, which resulted from the previous debt ceiling crisis in Washington.

The focus on an agreement shifted to the Senate after House Republicans failed on Tuesday to come up with a plan their majority could support, stymied again by demands from tea party conservatives for outcomes unacceptable to Obama and Senate Democrats, as well as some fellow Republicans.

Cruz, despite being in the Senate, is credited with spearheading the House Republican effort to attach amendments that would dismantle or defund the health care reforms known as Obamacare to previous proposals intended to end the shutdown.

All were rejected by the Democratic-led Senate, and Obama also pledged to veto them, meaning there was no chance they ever would have succeeded.

Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire called the House GOP tactic of tying Obamacare to the shutdown legislation "an ill-conceived strategy from the beginning, not a winning strategy."

However, Republican Rep. Steve King of Iowa advocated continued brinksmanship to try to change Obamacare, which conservatives detest as a big-government overreach.

"If we're not willing to take a stand now, then when will we take this stand?" he told CNN's "New Day," adding that if "the conservative Republican plan had been implemented five years ago, say at the inception of what is now the Obama presidency, we would have far less debt and deficit."

Warnings of default

Despite warnings by Obama and economists that a U.S. default would spike interest rates and could have catastrophic impacts at home and abroad, King said he's not too concerned if the government passes Thursday's deadline to raise the borrowing limit.

"It's just a date they picked on the calendar," he said, adding that the government will still be able to pay the interest on its debt. "I'm more concerned about market reaction than I am of default itself."

Thursday marks the day the Treasury Department will run out of special accounting maneuvers to keep the nation under the legal borrowing limit. From that point on, it will have to pay the country's incoming bills and other legal obligations with an estimated $30 billion in cash, plus whatever daily revenue comes in.

The White House had said that the U.S. would lose its borrowing authority on Thursday, leaving it only with cash on hand to pay bills and therefore at risk of default. Carney clarified Wednesday that the borrowing authority would continue through Thursday.

The expectation is that the Treasury will be able to pay bills in full for a short time after Thursday, but exactly how long remains unclear. According to the best outside estimates, the first day the government will run short of cash could come between October 22 and November 1.

Officials warn that an unknown is whether creditors such as foreign countries that traditionally roll over their U.S. bond holdings could decide to instead cash out, creating a potentially major payout that the government would lack funds to fulfill.

What happens next?

A break from tradition

If the Senate passes the agreement as expected, the House vote will likely consist of most or all of the chamber's 200 Democrats joined by some -- but not a majority -- of their Republican colleagues in supporting it. At least 20 or so Republicans would have to back the Senate plan for it to pass.

Rep. Charles Rangel compares tea party in House to 'confederates'

Slow process

Any delay in the legislative process could result in the nation running out of its borrowing authority.

While tax revenues will continue to stream in, that money will be enough to pay only part of the government's obligations over time. The impact is unclear in the immediate short term, but over days and weeks, it would mean that government officials would have to pick and choose which bills to pay and which to leave for another day.

The prospect of the U.S. government running out of money to pay its bills and, eventually, finding it difficult to make payments on the debt itself, has economists around the world prophesying dire consequences.

Mutual funds, which are not allowed to hold defaulted securities, may have to dump masses of U.S. treasuries.

Ratings agency Fitch fired a warning shot Tuesday that it may downgrade the country's AAA credit rating to AA+ over the political brinksmanship and bickering in Washington that have brought the government to this point.

That could help raise interest rates on U.S. debt, putting the country deeper into the red.

Rating agency Standard & Poor's cut the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ after the 2011 debt ceiling crisis. Moody's still has the U.S. rated AAA.

Investors around the world appeared to be sitting on the sidelines Wednesday waiting out the day's debate.

Asian markets ended with mixed results, European markets were down slightly Friday afternoon and U.S. stock futures -- frequently taken as an indicator for how U.S. markets will open -- were up marginally before trading began Wednesday.

Emergency brake?

Some scholars have suggested that the 14th Amendment to the Constitution gives Obama an emergency brake to stop the default by ignoring what Congress does and borrowing in spite of having reached the debt ceiling.

Section 4 of the amendment states: "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."

Obama has rejected such claims, the Congressional Research Service has said. And other scholars say that by invoking the 14th Amendment in this way, the President would risk breaking other laws.

But the same scholars who say this say they believe that section 4 was formulated to keep politicians from holding the debt hostage in order to impose their political will on the natio

Government dysfunction sparks doomsday fears

Muddled plan

Disarray among House Republicans caused confusion on Tuesday, with Boehner having to pull a proposed agreement from the floor because conservatives found it too weak.

The House proposal dropped some provisions on Obamacare but prohibited federal subsidies to the President and his administration officials as well as federal lawmakers and their staff receiving health insurance through the Affordable Care Act programs.

It also would have forbidden the Treasury from taking what it calls extraordinary measures to prevent the federal government from defaulting as cash runs low, in effect requiring hard deadlines to extend the federal debt ceiling.

House Democrats opposed the GOP proposal, which meant it couldn't pass without support from the 40 or so tea party conservatives, who wanted more spending cuts.

"It just kicks the can down the road another six weeks or two months," said Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor referred to the GOP infighting at Wednesday's caucus meeting, telling his Republican colleagues to stop beating up on each other, according to participants. Describing Cantor as impassioned, they said he implored the caucus to avoid characterizing each other as good or bad Republicans.

Stocks: Prepare for a bumpy ride

Time running out

Obama met Wednesday with Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, who has been looking for creative ways to cover U.S. financial obligations as the debt ceiling comes down.

On Tuesday, Obama called for House Republicans to "do what's right" by reopening government and ensuring the United States can pay its bills. "We don't have a lot of time," he said.

But he acknowledged Boehner's difficulty in getting his fellow House Republicans on the same page.

"Negotiating with me isn't necessarily good for the extreme faction in his caucus," Obama said, referring to the tea party and its conservative allies. "It weakens him, so there have been repeated situations where we have agreements. Then he goes back, and it turns out that he can't control his caucus."

Has shutdown affected you? Share your story with CNN iReport.

CNN's Ben Brumfield, Greg Botelho, Michael Pearson, Paul Steinhauser, Ashley Killough, Craig Broffman, Jim Acosta, Dana Bash, Deirdre Walsh, Mark Preston, Dan Merica, Brianna Keilar and Janet DiGiacomo contributed to this report.

10月10日のブルームバーグはこう伝えている....

http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/123-MUEIGK0D9L3501.html

常軌を逸した米国の政治劇、ドル基軸体制終焉への一里塚

  10月10日(ブルームバーグ):米国連邦政府の閉鎖という異例の事態が続き、さらに連邦政府のデフォルト(債務返済不能)の危機が迫ってきた。万が一デフォルトに陥れば、通貨ドルへの信認が失われ、基軸通貨国の地位が危うくなる。最強と言われる米国で、このような異常事態がなぜ何度も繰り返されるのだろうか。

もちろんさまざまな原因が絡み合っているが、要約すれば、オバマ大統領と共和党指導者のベイナー下院議長の指導力不足に行き着くだろう。米国大統領は米軍司令官も務める最高指導者であり、その指導力不足が特に混迷を深めているようだ。オバマ大統領は政権党の民主党指導部と共に対抗勢力である共和党に対して初めから「交渉の余地なし」として、話し合いによる打開の道を探ることすら拒否している。

暫定予算案が通らず、政府閉鎖突入が秒読み段階に入った9月末日のこと。米下院議員の間から期せずして、「プーチンはいないのか」という声が上がった。同月の初め、オバマ大統領はシリア攻撃に向けて議会の承認取り付けに動いていたが、暗礁に乗り上げてしまう。この時、ロシアのプーチン大統領がシリアに化学兵器の廃棄を働きかけ、交渉による解決への道が開かれた。議員たちはこのエピソードを今回のオバマ大統領の指導力不足に結びつけて、皮肉ったものだ。

オバマ大統領ならびに民主党の指導部が強気の姿勢を崩さないのは、2011年8月の債務上限 引き上げ交渉で譲歩し過ぎたという反省があることと、この時のゴタゴタの責任は共和党にあるとして、同党の支持率が低下したという経緯がある。

もちろん、共和党指導者も前回の失敗を認識しており、だからこそ今回の交渉ではオバマ大統領と民主党指導部が交渉に全く応じないと世論に訴え掛けることを忘れていない。

ティーパーティー

共和党指導部が指導力を十分に発揮できない理由は、下院を中心に小さな政府を強力に推進する草の根の保守運動、ティーパーティー(茶会)に属する議員が隠然たる勢力を誇っていることが大きい。

今回の政治混迷もティーパーティーに属する議員がベイナー議長に対し、国民皆保険を目指すオバマケア(医療制度改革法)への資金配分阻止を今年度予算案に付帯させるよう進言したのがきっかけだった。同議長も自党の結束を維持するため、この案を飲み込んだわけだ。

オバマケアは3年前に成立した法律であり、奇しくも今年10月1日に実施に移された。オバマ大統領の最大の功績と言われるだけに、その予算停止措置など受け入れられるはずもない。ベイナー議長がこのティーパーティーの要求を受け入れたのは、新人の多いティーパーティー議員をチキンレース(衝突寸前まで車を走らせる度胸試し)に走らせ、ワシントン政治の現実を叩き込もうという狙いも垣間見える。

チキンレースはオバマ政権・民主党に対して共和党という単純な構図ではなく、オバマ政権・民主党に対してティーパーティー議員・共和党指導部という形になっている。

共和党指導部の戦略

共和党指導部はティーパーティー議員に対する国民の反発が高まれば、これら議員も頭を冷やすだろうと期待しているのである。同指導部はティーパーティー議員をレースの先頭に押し立てて崖っぷちぎりぎりまで走らせながら、大統領と民主党指導部からの妥協を引き出すことを狙っている。

一方でオバマ大統領と民主党指導部は、強力な保守勢力に引っ張られている格好の共和党から世論が離れると読み、強硬姿勢を貫いてきた。しかし、オバマ大統領は交渉を主導できない指導力のない大統領という印象を与えており、大統領・民主党と共和党の共倒れになりかねない。

ボタンの掛け違いで、万が一にも連邦債務上限の引き上げに失敗すれば、米国債は初のデフォルトに陥ってしまう。米国政府は日本と違って外国から多額の借金をしている。デフォルトに陥れば、その後、いくら債務上限を引き上げたところで手遅れになり、海外からの貸し手はいなくなり、資金調達に行き詰る。米国債利回り は一段と上昇し、借金の返済もますます困難になっていく。もちろんドル売りは最高潮に達し、ニューヨーク株式市場も暴落に次ぐ暴落という最悪事態に追い込まれるリスクが大きい。

株暴落で世論が爆発か

もちろん、こうした大きなリスクがあるため、オバマ大統領並びに民主党、それに対抗する共和党も最終的に債務上限の引き上げで妥協するとみられる。過去の例では、この類の政治劇をぎりぎりまで引き延ばすとまず株が暴落 ⇒ 年金などで株式を運用する多くの国民が怒り出し ⇒ 政治的な妥協に追い込まれる、というパターンが繰り返されてきた。

金融市場至上主義が当たり前の米国では、こうした風潮に毒されていないティーパーティーの議員の方がむしろまっとうな見方をしていると言える。ティーパーティーの議員らは債務上限問題について、歳入 を上回る歳出 を続けているのが問題の根源であると指摘する。まず歳入を上回る歳出を削減すればいいだけの話だ。政府を閉鎖して必要最小限の機能を継続しているのだから、本当に必要なものを見極めて、不要な歳出を減らしていけば、債務上限など引き上げる必要はないという。

そもそも連邦債務上限は、財政の健全性を守るために存在するもので、これまでのように定期的に引き上げるべきものではない。それを引き上げるのが当然のごとく振る舞う大統領と民主党勢力は、常軌を逸している。オバマ大統領は政治ショーで世論を味方に付けることに熱心なあまり、国民一人一人を見据え、地に足の着いた政策を立案するという本道からかけ離れてしまった。

妥協の末路

オバマケアもインターネット上の公開市場で最も競争力のある保険と契約するという複雑なシステムを構築したため、10月1日の営業開始後、保険加入のために登録しようとしてもコンピュータにはねつけられるというケースが後を絶たない。システム構造上の欠陥さえ露呈している。

共和党側はオバマケアへの予算停止要求を引っ込め、1年間の延期要求に変えた。オバマ大統領・民主党にとって、既に開始された制度の延期はともかくとして、少なくともシステムや制度改革など改善すべき点が多いので、話し合いを通じて改善していくのが指導者の役目であろう。

景気悪化サイクルへ

しかし、オバマ大統領・民主党はメンツにこだわる一方で、健全財政に対する認識が欠落しているため、結局のところ落としどころは名ばかりの歳出削減策でお茶を濁して、政府機関の運営を再開、債務上限を引き上げることになる可能性が高い。これでは目先のデフォルトは避けられても、本当の財政問題の改善にはつながらず、いずれ行き詰まる。その時までにはさらに不均衡は拡大しており、その調整圧力は一段と大きくなる。

既に株式バブルは限界に近づき、景気も悪化サイクルに突入する兆候が増えてきた。今回の政治劇により、悪化局面に入りつつある米国経済の下げ足が加速しそうだ。

そうなればまず、不健全な量的金融緩和で膨張してきた株式バブルが破裂に向かい、いずれ米国債、ドル・バブルの崩壊へとつながっていくことになろう。ワシントンで繰り広げられている政治ショーはドルが基軸通貨の地位から退くための一里塚かもしれない。

 
 
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